NCS Thea – Risk Scoring in U.S. Legal Cannabis Markets

At the center of NCS Thea is the Lending Risk Score, a dynamic, continuously updated measure of repayment risk for each retail location. It’s designed to provide a clear, simple view of business health, backed by a wide range of operational data.

The score is updated twice a month, based on two reporting periods: the 1st through the 15th, and the 16th through the end of the month. Once data for a period is received, a new score is typically available within 48 hours.

Each score falls on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the lowest risk and 100 the highest. To make interpretation easier, scores are grouped into categories:

Prime (0-20): This score shows the lowest risk. These licenses are usually well-established businesses with a proven track record of growth, solid profit margins, and stable vendor relationships.

Strong (20-35): This score indicates growing businesses that could become more reliable over time, depending on your risk tolerance. Licenses in this category are generally established companies working toward long-term stability.

Marginal (35-50): This score suggests that licensees are near the edge of our recommended lending range, depending on your risk tolerance. Carefully review the impact indicators to identify which factors are increasing the risk profile of this license before proceeding.

Weak (50-70): This score points to a higher risk. Licenses in this category may be newer or have unstable growth, cash flow, or vendor relationships. Examine the impact indicators to find areas where the business can improve.

Poor (70-100): This score indicates the highest risk. Typically, several impact indicators have a strong negative impact on their risk profile. These businesses are generally not recommended for credit products.

You can think of it like a thermometer—the higher the score, the higher the risk.

Beyond the current score, Thea lets you see how risk has changed over time. At the bottom of the dashboard, you’ll find a rolling history of prior scores across each evaluation window. This makes it easy to track movement, identify patterns, and understand whether a business is improving, declining, or remaining stable.

You can select any past score to view the full snapshot from that point in time, giving you a consistent way to compare performance across different evaluation windows.